老年急性肺损伤患者列线图预后模型的构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-9400.2021.06.004

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Abstract Objective: To explore the independent risk factors in the prognosis of elderly patients with acute lung injury (ALI) and to develop a nomogram to predict their mortality risk. Methods: Clinical data of 325 patients with acute lung injury from MIMIC-III database and 138 ALI cases in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen out the risk factors for death, and a nomogram model was constructed to predict short-term possible death. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the lowest systolic blood pressure, lactic acid and PT were risk factors for death in elderly patients with acute lung injury (P<0.05). The C index of nomogram model was 0.712 (95%CI=0.656-0.767), and the C index of external validation nomogram was 0.753 (95%CI=0.671-0.836), with the internal and external calibration curves close to the standard curve. Conclusion: This nomogram model can be used to evaluate the prognosis of elderly patients with acute lung injury, and has good accuracy and differentiation

Key words： elderly patients acute lung injury mortality risk nomogram

Received: 28 February 2021

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	CHEN Chan
	LIANG Feiyu
	ZHANG Jing
	YANG Jingwen
	SHI Xuan
	DU Xiaohong
	SU Huafang

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https://xb.wmu.edu.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.2095-9400.2021.06.004 OR https://xb.wmu.edu.cn/EN/Y2021/V51/I6/449

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