LIU Jiahui,MA Li,LI Fang.. The predictive value of nomogram model in the occurrence of plastic bronchitis in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection[J]. JOURNAL OF WEZHOU MEDICAL UNIVERSITY, 2023, 53(3): 209-214.
Abstract：Objective: To explore the predictive value of nomogram model in the occurrence of plastic bronchitis (PB) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 246 children with MPP who were admitted to the pediatrics department of Lanzhou Xigu District People’s Hospital from June 2018 to June 2022. Children were divided into PB group (n=66) and non-PB group (n=180) according to whether PB occurred or not. The variables were screened by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram prediction model for the occurrence of PB in children with MPP was constructed. Then, the consistency of the prediction model by calibration curve, the accuracy of the prediction model by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the clinical value of the prediction model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The values of fever duration, peak body temperature, neutrophil percentage, interleukin-6, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, C-reactive protein and the proportions of children with hypoxemia, glucocorticoids, atelectasis and pleural effusion were significantly higher than those in the non-PB group (P<0.05), while the platelet count was significantly lower than that in the non-PB group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression results showed that fever duration, peak body temperature, atelectasis, pleural effusion, neutrophil percentage, platelet count, interleukin-6 and lactate dehydrogenase were the influencing factors of PB in children with MPP. The calibration curve results showed that the incidence of PB predicted by the nomogram model had a good agreement with the actual incidence. The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of the nomogram model was 0.925 (95%CI=0.886 -0.965, P<0.05). The DCA curve results showed that the nomogram model had a higher rate of clinical net benefit. Conclusion: In this study, a nomogram prediction model for the occurrence of PB in children with MPP was constructed by using fever duration, peak body temperature, atelectasis, pleural effusion, neutrophil percentage, platelet count, interleukin-6 and lactate dehydrogenase, which has good consistency and accuracy, clinical application value.
